Due to new methods of gathering data, it may be possible to predict future income protection claimants. Wilson Carswell explains.
The GHQ-12 consists of 12 questions (see box, top right), each of which has four possible answers. It takes about five minutes to complete and has been widely used as an indicator of minor psychiatric morbidity or illness in both general practice and academic studies.
If individuals score four or more they are considered to meet the criteria for GHQ-12.
The second factor found to be relevant for future IB claims was the frequency of consultations with their general medical practitioners. Those who attended more than ten times in the previous year were considered to be ‘frequent attenders’.
The results of the study showed that there was a significant increase in rates of GHQ-12 cases, starting two years before a claim was made. Also, a significant increase in the prevalence of frequent consultations with a general practitioner was evident from three years before the first claim for IB.
Researchers concluded that: “People with mental health problems who are likely to have problems remaining in work can be identified up to three years before they transit to long-term benefits related to ill health.”
Analysis
This study raises multiple questions. Is it a reflection of long-term absence from work generally? Are the findings just applicable to Scotland and to those claiming state benefits? Has the study any relevance to income protection (IP) claimants? Even if applicable to IP claimants, is there anything effective insurers can do about it?
The answer to all of these questions is obviously ‘Don’t know’, although one can speculate on the answers.
There are several reasons why this study is directly relevant to IP insurers, because there are a number of similarities between IB and IP claimants.
In both groups, there is a lengthy period between the recorded or certificated onset of an illness and a claim being made. For IB claimants this is at least six months, and in IP claimants it depends on the individuals’ chosen deferred or waiting period.
The significance of this is that the claimant may be treated expectantly and not exposed to any significant therapeutic intervention during the waiting period. This allows the original symptoms to become entrenched and more difficult to reverse once a claim has been made some months later.
Linked to this persistence of symptoms is the length of the eventual claim. It is the reported experience of the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) that once an IB claim is accepted it is likely to persist for years, with resulting high costs. A similar experience is present among IP insurers with their successful IP claims.
