Supply and demand will ensure private healthcare remains popular, says Deepak Jobanputra
The Government has made an emphatic commitment to inject investment into the NHS, £4bn added to spending on public services in 2003/04 and further sustained increases in investment in future years. In addition to this investment, the NHS plan acknowledges that significant reform is required.
Some might argue such action is long overdue. The question that remains is whether or not this extra spending and reform will translate into the Government's pledge to deliver a 'world class' healthcare system?
The impact of any changes will depend on the time-frame being considered. We are not likely to see an improvement in the immediate future. The need for more doctors and facilities to address the capacity problems will not be solved overnight. BMA chairman, Dr Ian Bogle, has said it takes 10 to 15 years to train a GP or hospital consultant. The King's Fund, an independent healthcare think-tank, supports the view that a sustained increase in funding will be required because increases in NHS funding take many years to bear fruit.
So in the short term, the private healthcare market is unlikely to see a fall in demand due to changes in the NHS. Private healthcare customers will want to be assured the NHS is able to deliver its promises before making any rash decisions. We might even see an increase in demand for private healthcare in the short term. Section 6 of the Government's Delivering the NHS Plan states there will be closer links with the private sector to assist with capacity issues.
In the long term, an advanced NHS might reduce some of the current problems, but the demand for healthcare will never be fully met. There will always be room for improvements in the form of new and faster diagnoses, better facilities and so on. To add to this, the demographic picture of the UK means there will be a greater burden emanating from the higher costs associated with an ageing population.
It is unlikely the NHS on its own will supply the whole market and demand for healthcare could be described by some as being insatiable. So the private healthcare market should support and complement the NHS.
Consumer demand will naturally be a function of the NHS environment. This has been demonstrated recently through the large numbers of individuals taking up self-pay surgery or operations, quite often abroad, due to long waiting lists.
Consequently, in the era of a 'super-NHS' we will continue to see demand for private healthcare although this might be in a different form to the current range of products.
