Alan Lakey: A simple guess is not good enough

I often hear from people who believe that valuing a critical illness condition is simple. They've seen a website which advises that, annually, 118,000 strokes occur in the UK and another site tells them that there are 364,000 malignant cancer diagnoses a year. Simple then, right, stroke represents 32% of the cancer value, and so on. Of course, if it was that easy we'd all be guru's and CIExpert would not be needed. A casual observer might ask why it's so important to be able to precisely value...